Erik Ten Hag Must Break the Manchester United Cycle

We have been here far too often. A Manchester United manager has had an underwhelming summer transfer window entering his second season, dealt with injuries to the squad, and now murmurs of job security following a slow start to said season welcomes one into the realm of unfortunate and ominous conversations. When will the cycle be broken at this football club? 

The answer - to me, at least - is indeed found in the bald Dutchman currently employed. And no, Donny van de Beek hasn't suffered from hair loss; rather, recency bias has clouded seemingly everyone's judgment over what Erik ten Hag has accomplished in his first 16 months as manager of the club. When accounting for situational circumstances, ignoring the paracosm that some live in where United is apparently anywhere near the levels of their cross-town neighbors, and analyzing the club from the perspective of their on-field product instead of presuming that the PR-machine megabrand is representative of the state of the actual football being played, what the former Ajax boss has achieved with this team is - if I may dare to say it - not too short of brilliant. 

In a shorter way: just because Manchester United is the biggest club in England and one of the biggest in the world, Erik ten Hag should not be expected to operate at the levels of the best club in England or one of the best in all of world football. Disagreeing with such a point of view means disregarding the freefall the club has experienced on the pitch since Sir Alex Ferguson's exit in 2013. 

As we'll see momentarily, Erik's track record at United doesn't necessarily need this added validation to be considered successful, but it doesn't hurt to mention it. I am looking to defend this manager; the context of the last decade helps me in doing so.

Here are some of the numbers on Erik ten Hag's first season at Manchester United (2022/23):

- Highest League points total since 2018 

- 15 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss at home in the league

- Finished 3rd (6th the year previous)

- Carabao Cup Champions (first trophy in six years)

- FA Cup Finalists

- Fastest ever Man United manager to reach 20 wins

- Club record for most home victories in all competitions (27)

Seen worse? I thought so. What's more, ten Hag's first season significantly eclipsed those of Jürgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola, and Mikel Arteta in their first campaigns in the Premier League. Can one even imagine a reality where any of those three gets sacked anytime soon?

Allow us to just take a brief look at the actual domestic games that Erik has lost in his short tenure. It is not an embarrassing list. Here are the league defeats:

(A denotes an away match, and H denotes a home match)

Brighton 3x (H, H, A)

Manchester City (A)

Arsenal 2x (A, A)

Tottenham (A)

Brentford (A)

Newcastle (A)

Aston Villa (A)

Liverpool (A)

West Ham (A)

Crystal Palace (H)

Barring the home defeat at Crystal Palace this past weekend, Manchester United have not lost what most would consider to be an easy league fixture under Erik ten Hag. Yes, last season's Europa League quarterfinal was a disappointment (crashing out to Sevilla in the second leg due to self inflictions in defense, a problem still prevalent in this year's defeats), but even outside of that competition the only other defeat last season came in the FA Cup final; with 11 wins from 12 games in the cups. 

As Erik's good friend Cristiano Ronaldo says, the numbers don't lie. 

Nevertheless, the shortcomings can't be ignored. In keeping with the nature of this piece, here is a list:

1. As shown above, Erik's United has struggled to pick up points against the top half of the Premier League away from home. No team is expected to overachieve in these games, but United were frequently undone at some of the tougher away grounds last season. Anfield still hurts.

2. Part of the historically bad start to this season is attributed to 2 defeats after 2 games in the Champions League. Both games were essentially lost by Andre Onana's crucial mistakes, but he is an Erik ten Hag signing. The manager's decision-making is the reason it isn't David de Gea between the posts. Yes, the board has failed to deliver on a number of ten Hag's priority transfer targets, but Onana was the man he wanted. Hence, accountability has to be taken for the rollercoaster that has been this Champions League group stage so far.

3. From here on out we begin to get nit-picky, but it's worth mentioning that the substitutions and rotations have been sub-par at times. There is a conversation to be had that more rotation would've cost ten Hag the silverware he's achieved as well as hurt the points tally of last year's league campaign. This is then refuted by those who would say that it's not his fault; the bench is made up of players whom Erik already wished to have sold and doesn't find good enough. It is a bit of a circular debate, but either way, the team is feeling the effects of the minutes played last year.

Bouncing off of that third and final point in defense of the boss, there is very little coverage or empathy for the fact that Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, Raphael Varane, and Aaron wan-Bissaka - the entire back line that acted as the foundation for last season's success - have all already missed significant time this year due to injury. 

Tyrell Malacia, Kobbie Mainoo, Amad Diallo, Sergio Reguilon, Mason Mount, Sofyan Amrabat, Rasmus Højlund, Harry Maguire, as well as Sancho and Antony for external reasons have also all missed a multitude of fixtures due to injury. We are barely in October.

Add to the fire the looming sale of the club, which leaves an unknown number of United employees without control or security over their future and leaves the manager questioning not only whether and how much investment he has in the transfer window but also who is providing the funds.

Add to that what feels like common knowledge by now that the board and the recruitment team are incompetent and failed to deliver on what the manager deserved this summer after a remarkable first season, and we are finding it rather easy to erase the picture being painted that the sky is falling under Erik ten Hag.

The journalists haven't gunned for Mauricio Pochettino in the same way at Chelsea despite their even worse beginnings and anyone can speculate why that might be, but the onus is on the fans to ensure that the media cannot continue to place harsh and undeserved criticism onto Erik ten Hag. At this moment, there is far more pressure being placed on his shoulders than what his tenure has suggested there should be.

The season is off to a bad start. But in the football world, things tend to get blown out of proportion very quickly. A few results in United's favor will put everyone's feelings back in check in the same way that some unfortunate games have sent the United universe into the mess it finds itself in today. 

If we can't find an appreciation for what ten Hag has managed in his time in charge and instead fail to look past a rough, injury-riddled patch of games to start the new campaign, there will be another new manager's press conference by the end of the year. 

And if the body of evidence is telling us that there's a good chance that Erik is in fact the man for the job, I'd rather still be listening to him answer the Harry Maguire press conference questions on my Christmas holidays than someone else.